Several DUPRI students attended the Population Association of America (PAA) Annual Meeting in Washington, DC from April 10-13. There they presented their research at both panels and poster sessions and served as panel discussants. Below we summarize their work.
The Direct Financial Costs of Having a Family Member Incarcerated
Garrett Baker, Duke University; Sarah Jobe, Duke University; Sarah Sernaker, Duke University; Christopher Wildeman, Duke University
Using original data from the Family Incarceration Costs Survey, we present the first national estimates of the direct financial costs of family member incarceration. We find that most Americans with an incarcerated family member provide them direct financial support. The median monthly expense among those who contribute is $180 (6% of household income). On average, African Americans and Hispanics incur higher expenses than whites despite their lower household incomes. Men and women contribute similar amounts, but these expenses reflect a larger share of women’s household income. Poor families’ incarceration-related expenses are roughly equivalent to that of affluent families and are similar to their spending on healthcare, utilities, and car insurance, suggesting that familial incarceration is a prominent line item that may strain already-tight household budgets.
The Long Arm of Family Structure on Offspring’s Trajectory of Wealth Accumulation and Allocation Pattern in Early and Middle Adulthood
Shuyi Qiu, Duke University
Applying a sequence analysis over three decades of longitudinal wealth data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), this study examines how growing up under different family structures is linked to the variation in individuals’ wealth accumulation trajectories and their wealth allocation patterns. Viewing household wealth as an integrated portfolio of various types of assets and debts, this study aims to track how individuals transition between different portfolio categories in their early adulthood, and how these transitions vary depending on the family structure in their childhood. Findings reveal significant stratification in wealth trajectories by family background. Individuals raised in stable two-parent households are more likely to experience stable and upwardly mobile wealth trajectories, whereas those from single-parent families or those who experienced parental relationship changes tend to have more volatile trajectories. Furthermore, while family disruptions negatively impact individuals from two-parent households, the disadvantage associated with being born into a single-parent household persists regardless of subsequent family transitions.
Perceived Racial Treatment and Mental Health Across Black and White Generational Cohorts
Fatima Fairfax, Duke University
The relationship between perceived racial discrimination and mental health is well established. However, this impact may vary across generational cohorts due to differences in racial socialization among both Black and white adults. Using data from the 2023 BRFSS, I examine how perceived racial treatment relative to other racial groups relates to three subjective mental health indicators (mental distress, stress, and life dissatisfaction) and diagnosed depression among Black and white adults across generational cohorts (Silent Generation/Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z). Preliminary findings suggest that Generation X may experience worse subjective mental health outcomes across Black and white adults compared to the Silent/Baby Boomer generations. Furthermore, while perceived discrimination among Black adults predicts higher odds of all poor mental health indicators, both perceived discrimination and perceived preferential treatment are associated with poor mental health outcomes among white adults (compared to equal treatment with other races).\
The Great Leveler? Juvenile Arrest, College Attainment, and the Future of American Inequality
Garrett Baker, Duke University; David Kirk, University of Pennsylvania; Robert Sampson, Harvard University
A burgeoning literature suggests that criminal justice contact in adolescence hinders educational attainment, but prior research primarily considers short-term outcomes such as dropping out of high school and is often limited to self-reported arrest information plagued by various limitations. In this paper, we leverage a unique longitudinal dataset—Illinois administrative criminal records linked to 25 years of survey data—that enables us to provide the first estimates of whether the effect of an officially recorded juvenile arrest lingers beyond high school through college completion. We find that juvenile arrest is associated with a 20-25 percentage point decrease in one’s likelihood of graduating from a four-year college. This association persists even for those who graduate high school, is generally consistent across socio-demographic groups and birth cohorts, and does not seem to be a byproduct of post-arrest avoidance of surveilling systems. Given the disparate and prevalent nature of juvenile arrest, the durability of the association across time periods characterized by vast social-structural changes, and the ever-increasing importance of college attainment, our study offers new insights on how entanglement with the criminal justice system prior to adulthood may contribute to inequality in the US.
Anti-Trans Legislation and Mental Health: Spillover Effects
AP Pittman, Duke University
This paper aims to better understand the current situation regarding the flood of anti-trans laws and its impact on mental health. Policies restricting the activities, opportunities, and well-being of trans individuals create a "transgender legal status." This primarily exposes trans individuals to stress, but it may also expose fellow group members (i.e. cisgender LGBQ people) to increased stress. In addition, cisgender LGBQ individuals who do not see themselves as trans may nevertheless be targets for transphobia, due to being lumped together by out-groups. I will use difference-in-differences analysis of Household Pulse Survey data to estimate the impact of the passage of anti-trans laws on trans/gender non-conforming and cisgender LGBQ residents of affected states.
Property Dynamics and Displacement: How Sales and Demolitions of Rental Property Influence Moves for Children
Warren Lowell, Duke University; Anna Gassman-Pines, Duke University; Marcos Rangel, Duke University; Elizabeth Gifford, Duke University
Recent work suggests that property sales are associated with increased prevalence of eviction filings. However, how sales—and other changes to rental properties like renovations and demolitions—influence residential mobility or children’s enrollment in school is unknown. To address this gap, this paper asks the question: How do changes to rental properties influence where children live and attend school? We conduct analysis with an innovative data linkage of property-level data on real estate transactions and building permits with student-level records on home address and school registration in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg public schools. We find that children living in multifamily housing sold or demolished during the 2019 or 2020 school year were 15% and 40% more likely to experience a residential move before the start of the 2021 school year, respectively, in comparison to children who lived in stably owned and maintained multifamily housing in the same neighborhood. However, neither property sales nor demolitions increased the probability of school switches. Together, these findings imply that although property sales and demolitions may cause housing displacement, a combination of family’s concerted efforts and a policy that ensures consistent school enrollment during housing insecurity may help students remain in their school of origin.
Community Supervision and Infant Health
Isabella Bouklas, Duke University; AP Pittman, Duke University; Daichi Hibi, Washington University in St. Louis; Michael Cao, Duke University; David Rigby, University of Michigan; Tim Bruckner, UC Irvine, Public Health; Joan Casey, University of Washington; Allison Stolte, University of California, Irvine; Hedwig Lee, Duke University
Black-white disparities in infant health remain stark in the United States. Black-white disparities in state-level incarceration rates correlate with the racial inequity in infant health. However, less is known about whether other aspects of the criminal legal system, such as parole and probation, affect racial disparities in these outcomes. Here we examine the association between state-level rates of imprisonment, parole supervision, and probation supervision on Black-white differences in infant mortality. We use two-way fixed effects models with state and year fixed effects to estimate the impact of these state-level characteristics on Black, white, and Black-white differences in infant mortality rates. Preliminary analyses show positive associations between imprisonment rates and Black infant mortality and Black-white inequality, with these associations increasing in both magnitude and significance when including parole and probation rates as predictor variables. The potential role of parole and probation on Black infant health warrants further scrutiny.