Demographic Dynamics and Population Responses to Varying Natural Hazard Exposure Across the U.S., 1970-2014 - Sara Curran, University of Washington

Demographic Dynamics and Population Responses to Varying Natural Hazard Exposure Across the U.S., 1970-2014

Understanding demographic responses to climate-related natural disasters has garnered sustained attention ever since the 2007 IPCC report. The challenge with calibrating policy plans and responses is two-fold. First, there are challenges with linking social data to environmental data at proper temporal and social scales, accounting for heterogeneity in exposures and responses and avoiding retrospective, event-centric sample bias. Second, there is the challenge of accounting for the entire complexity of human behavioral and institutional responses. In this paper, we attempt to address the former challenges through the creation of a county-year database that integrates annualized measures of population change and density with exposures to natural disasters. We account for underlying population trends and then evaluate models that assess the effects of cumulative disaster exposures and current year event exposures on subsequent population growth. We evaluate these effects on both short and medium population responses with the expectation that events can lead to population ‘churning’ in the short term and subsequent stabilizing in out going years. The results of our models suggest some possible directions for addressing the second set of challenges facing policy makers and researchers seeking to understand the complexities of human responses to climate change. 

Event Date
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Speaker
Sara Curran, University of Washington
Venue
230E Gross Hall
Semester
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