Manoj Mohanan and colleagues estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, India and illustrate why this matters

Manoj Mohanan and colleagues estimate the prevalence  of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, India and illustrate why this matters

Manoj Mohanan and colleagues estimate the prevalence  of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, India and illustrate why this matters

Low- and middle-income countries contain the majority of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). India has the second-highest number of reported cases, but most seroprevalence estimates come from cities. Cities, with denser population, are more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. However, millions of city workers  have fled to rural India where lockdown is less stringent.  

The study team, under the leadership of Manoj Mohanan, Assoicate Professor in Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy, working in partnership with national and local government authorities,  assessed SARS-CoV-2 prevalence among volunteers from population-representative households in urban and rural areas of the state of Karnataka (population, 67.5 million).

Mohanan and colleagues found that the adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 across Karnataka was 46.7%, suggesting approximately 31.5 million residents were infected, far greater than the 327,076 cases reported by August 29, 2020 by covid19india.org.This discrepancy may be due to low testing rates (approximately 4,000 per million  population) and a large proportion of infections in Karnataka being asymptomatic. These findings have clear implications for infection containment measures in India.

The study  was funded by an Action Covid-19 Team grant awarded to IDFC Foundation (Mumbai, India).

See https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776292 for a full description of this study.